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Watch In a 50-50 Senate, the House impeachment managers — all of whom are Democrats — need to persuade 17 Republican senators to join every member of their party to convict Trump.

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A trio of Republican senators allied with former President Donald Trump met with his defense team Thursday evening, in the middle of an impeachment trial in which they will vote on whether to convict Trump and potentially bar him from holding public office again.

Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah were spotted going into a room in the US Capitol that Trump’s lawyers were using to prepare for their arguments.
Trump lawyer David Schoen said that the senators were “very friendly guys” who just wanted to make sure they were “familiar with procedure” on the eve of their rebuttal to the House impeachment managers’ presentation.
When asked if it’s appropriate to meet with senators during the trial, Schoen said, “Oh yeah, I think that’s the practice of impeachment.”
“There’s nothing about this thing that has any semblance of due process whatsoever,” he added.
Some senators view themselves as impartial jurors during impeachment trials, while others lend a hand to their party’s side.
Republican senators have already signaled that they will vote to acquit the former President of the charge of “incitement of insurrection,” preventing a subsequent vote on Trump’s political future. In a 50-50 Senate, the House impeachment managers — all of whom are Democrats — need to persuade 17 Republican senators to join every member of their party to convict Trump.
The managers on Thursday showed clips of Trump’s speech before the Capitol rampage on January 6, in which he urged his supporters to “fight like hell,” “never give up” and “never concede.” Many Republican senators point out that Trump also said “to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” They’ve also blamed the rioters rather than the former President for the deadly violence that day.
Among the harrowing images presented during the impeachment trial of former President Donald J. Trump, one video stood out: a police officer sprinting toward a United States senator to warn of the angry mob nearby.

The senator, Mitt Romney, is shown turning on his heels and fleeing for safety.

“I don’t think my family or my wife understood that I was as close as I might have been to real danger,” Mr. Romney told reporters on Thursday, one day after the video showed Eugene Goodman, a Capitol Police officer already known for his bravery, aiding him. “They were surprised and very, very appreciative of Officer Goodman, in his being there and directing me back to safety.”

For Officer Goodman, it was the second time a video went viral displaying actions widely credited with saving members of Congress. The first, which showed him single-handedly luring a mob away from the entrance of the Senate toward an area with reinforcements, turned him into a hero. The second has added to his lore.

Both have catapulted Officer Goodman — a former Army infantryman who served in one of the most dangerous parts of Iraq during one of the most lethal times of the war — to fame he never sought.

On Wednesday, after watching the videos that showed Officer Goodman directing Mr. Romney to safety, Mr. Romney could be seen talking with Officer Goodman. Senator Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, later walked over and fist-bumped Officer Goodman.

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On Thursday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi singled out Officer Goodman for his courage when she introduced legislation to award the Capitol Police and other law enforcement personnel who responded on Jan. 6 with the Congressional Gold Medal, the highest honor of Congress. On Jan. 20, Officer Goodman was given the task of escorting Vice President Kamala Harris at the inauguration of President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

The Trump Impeachment ›
What You Need to Know
A trial is being held to decide whether former President Donald J. Trump is guilty of inciting a deadly mob of his supporters when they stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, violently breaching security measures and sending lawmakers into hiding as they met to certify President Biden’s victory.
The House voted 232 to 197 to approve a single article of impeachment, accusing Mr. Trump of “inciting violence against the government of the United States” in his quest to overturn the election results. Ten Republicans joined the Democrats in voting to impeach him.
To convict Mr. Trump, the Senate would need a two-thirds majority to be in agreement. This means at least 17 Republican senators would have to vote with Senate Democrats to convict.
A conviction seems unlikely. Last month, only five Republicans in the Senate sided with Democrats in beating back a Republican attempt to dismiss the charges because Mr. Trump is no longer in office. Only 27 senators say they are undecided about whether to convict Mr. Trump.
If the Senate convicts Mr. Trump, finding him guilty of “inciting violence against the government of the United States,” senators could then vote on whether to bar him from holding future office. That vote would only require a simple majority, and if it came down to party lines, Democrats would prevail with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tiebreaking vote.
If the Senate does not convict Mr. Trump, the former president could be eligible to run for public office once again. Public opinion surveys show that he remains by far the most popular national figure in the Republican Party.

Veterans who served alongside Officer Goodman in the 101st Airborne Division some 15 years ago in Iraq say that the officer, known then as “Goody,” never craved accolades.

“I saw him come out in front of the vice president and he immediately ducked to the right,” said Mark Belda, who served with Officer Goodman in Iraq. “I thought that’s definitely Goody.”

When he closely watched the first video, Mr. Belda said, he saw attributes he recognized in Officer Goodman from Iraq. “He wasn’t prone to anger. As an infantryman, your job is to be violent but it was never his first reaction to use the stick before you use the carrot.”

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In Iraq, Officer Goodman was a sergeant and a leader of a 10-man rifle squad who assumed new responsibilities soon after his unit arrived in 2005.

His “Hardrock Company” operated in the Sunni triangle area near Baghdad in central Iraq, where American troops engaged in some of the fiercest combat of the war.

ImageOfficer Goodman, far left in the back row, with his platoon in Iraq.
Officer Goodman, far left in the back row, with his platoon in Iraq.Credit…via John Greis
The platoons were required to conduct multiple combat patrols each day to identify explosives before they were detonated, work that often resulted in various injuries, according to Lt. Col. Jeff Farmer, who served alongside Officer Goodman in the company.

“The front squad leader was critical, someone willing to take on this risk and lead his squad day in and day out,” Colonel Farmer said.

That leader was Officer Goodman.

“I cannot recall exactly how many dismounted patrols Goody led as a point man in the company, but I can say that it was likely in the hundreds, making him the go-to guy quite frankly when others needed that reassurance that things were going to be OK,” Colonel Farmer said.

Officer Goodman was a quiet professional, his superiors said, serious and focused on his missions but also quick with a joke to ease tension in the ranks, they said. His fellow soldiers could count on him to do “what needed to be done,” said John Greis, who served as his platoon sergeant in Iraq. “That’s coolness under pressure.”

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Colonel Farmer said he was not surprised when he saw the video of Officer Goodman facing the angry mob in the Capitol.

“Calm, cool, and collected under fire, that’s just Goody,” Colonel Farmer said. “I trusted my life with him, and still would to this day.”

Officer Goodman is now in uncomfortable territory, according to his fellow veterans. He has not made public comments and did not return multiple requests for interviews, including a handwritten note at his apartment near District Heights, Md.

A neighbor said Officer Goodman had not returned to his apartment in the days after the attack at the Capitol, and had advised those in his apartment building not to speak to the news media.

“He doesn’t want to be in the center of the attention. He just wants to duck to the side and you all can do what you want to do,” said Mr. Belda, Mr. Goodman’s former first sergeant. “Let me do my job and you guys do what you want to do, just leave me alone.”

Charles H. Ramsey, who led police departments in Was
Cruz said the meeting with the Trump defense team was an opportunity for “sharing our thoughts” about their legal strategy. A wide array of Senate Republicans harshly criticized the defense team on Tuesday, the opening day of the trial, arguing that Trump attorney Bruce Castor had delivered a rambling and unfocused argument in making the case that the proceedings are unconstitutional.
When asked if he’s now comfortable with the Trump team’s legal strategy, Cruz said, “I think the end result of this impeachment trial is crystal clear to everybody.”
“Donald Trump will be acquitted,” he added. “It takes 67 votes to convict him and every person in the Senate chamber understands that there are not the votes to convict, nor should there be.”
Clare Foran, Ted Barrett and Ali Zaslav contributed to this report.

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Health

U.S. Ex-President Donald Trump tests positive for COVID-19

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President Trump revealed early Friday morning that he and the first lady, Melania Trump, had tested positive for the coronavirus, throwing the nation’s leadership into uncertainty and escalating the crisis posed by a pandemic that has already killed more than 207,000 Americans and devastated the economy.

Mr. Trump, who for months has played down the seriousness of the virus and hours earlier on Thursday night told an audience that “the end of the pandemic is in sight,” will quarantine in the White House for an unspecified period of time, forcing him to withdraw at least temporarily from the campaign trail only 32 days before the election on Nov. 3.

The dramatic disclosure came in a Twitter message just before 1 a.m. after a suspenseful evening following reports that Mr. Trump’s close adviser Hope Hicks had tested positive. In her own tweet about 30 minutes later, Mrs. Trump wrote that the first couple were “feeling good,” but the White House did not say whether they were experiencing symptoms. The president’s physician said he could carry out his duties “without disruption” from the Executive Mansion.

“Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19,” Mr. Trump tweeted. “We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!”

Mr. Trump’s positive test result posed immediate challenges for the future of his campaign against former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic nominee, with barely a month until Election Day. Even if Mr. Trump, 74, remains asymptomatic, he will lose much of his remaining time on the campaign trail. If he becomes sick, it could raise questions about whether he should remain on the ballot at all.

The White House did not say how long Mr. Trump would have to remain isolated, but it canceled his plans to fly to Florida for a campaign rally on Friday, stripping his public schedule for the day of everything except a midday telephone call “on Covid-19 support to vulnerable seniors.” Appearances at rallies in Wisconsin on Saturday and in Arizona on Monday also appear sure to be scrapped, and the next debate, scheduled for Oct. 15 in Miami, was left up in the air.

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During late-night conversations, aides to Mr. Trump were discussing whether he should give an address to the nation on Friday from the White House or find some other way for him to reassure the public. But the aides were still in a state of shock as they absorbed the news, and there was no immediate word on how far the infection may have spread among senior White House officials, who generally do not wear masks in deference to the president’s disdain for them.

“The president and first lady are both well at this time, and they plan to remain at home within the White House during their convalescence,” Dr. Sean P. Conley, the White House physician, said in a statement, adding: “Rest assured I expect the president to continue carrying out his duties without disruption while recovering, and I will keep you updated on any future developments.”

Other aides to the president would not say whether he was experiencing symptoms, but people at the White House noticed that his voice sounded raspy on Thursday, although it was not clear that was abnormal for him, especially given the number of campaign rallies he has been holding lately.

Even if Mr. Trump does not become seriously ill, the positive test could prove devastating to his political fortunes given his months of playing down the enormity of the pandemic even as the virus was still ravaging the country and killing about 1,000 Americans every day. He has repeatedly predicted the virus was “going to disappear,” asserted that it was under control and insisted that the country was “rounding the corner” to the end of the crisis. He has scorned the advice of scientists, saying they were mistaken about the severity of the situation.

For months, Mr. Trump has refused to wear a mask in public on all but a few occasions and has repeatedly questioned their effectiveness. And as recently as Tuesday, at their opening debate, he mocked Mr. Biden for wearing one. “I don’t wear masks like him,” the president said, his voice dripping with derision. “Every time you see him, he’s got a mask.”

It was not immediately clear whether Mr. Trump had already been infected by the virus at the time of the debate with Mr. Biden, 77, although the two stood far across stage and never got within six feet of each other.
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Trailing in the polls, the president in recent weeks has increasingly held crowded campaign events in defiance of public health guidelines and sometimes state and local governments. When he accepted the nomination on the final day of the Republican National Convention, he invited more than 1,000 supporters to the South Lawn of the White House and has held a number of rallies around the country since, often with hundreds and even thousands of people jammed into tight spaces, many if not most without masks.

There is no one closer to Mr. Trump than Ms. Hicks, who returned to the White House this year after leaving her position as communications director in 2018, and on Wednesday traveled with the president on Air Force One to Minnesota. She began feeling sick around the time of the campaign rally he held there, according to one person familiar with the events, and was quarantined on the return flight to Washington, where she disembarked from the back entrance of the plane.

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Her positive diagnosis came on Thursday, according to the person familiar with her case, but the White House made no announcement about the situation, and Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary, who had also been on the plane and exposed to Ms. Hicks, then held a briefing with reporters without mentioning it or wearing a mask.

Only after Bloomberg News reported Ms. Hicks’s condition did Mr. Trump confirm it during an appearance on Thursday night on Sean Hannity’s show on Fox News, where he said he was waiting for his own test results.

The positive tests will undercut Mr. Trump’s effort to change the subject of the campaign away from a pandemic that polls show most Americans believe he has mishandled and onto political terrain he considers more favorable. The president has sought to focus voter attention instead on violence in cities, his Supreme Court nomination, mail-in ballots and Mr. Biden’s relationship with liberals.

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Mr. Trump is the latest world leader to become infected. Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain was so sick that he had to be hospitalized before later recovering. Prince Charles likewise contracted the virus, as have the leaders of Brazil, Honduras, Guatemala and Bolivia.

But the symbolism of an infected American president could rattle allies, as well as governors and business owners trying to assess when and how to reopen or keep open shops, schools, parks, beaches, restaurants, factories and other workplaces. Eager to restore a semblance of normal life before the election, Mr. Trump has dismissed health concerns to demand that schools reopen, college football resume play and businesses return to full operation.

In his eighth decade of life, Mr. Trump belongs to the age category deemed most vulnerable to the coronavirus. Eight out of every 10 deaths attributed to it in the United States have been among those 65 and older. In private discussions, Mr. Trump has been fatalistic with associates when talking about whether he or others would get sick from the virus, describing it as essentially a roll of the dice.

He has been resistant to permitting details of his health to be made public, raising questions about his overall condition. In November, he made an unannounced trip to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center that prompted speculation that he had an undisclosed medical ailment, but the White House insisted that he simply underwent routine tests, without revealing what they were or what they showed.

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But while Mr. Trump has been reported to have high cholesterol and tips the scale at 243 pounds, which is considered obese for his height, Dr. Conley, his physician, pronounced Mr. Trump in “very good health” last year after his last full medical checkup. And, unlike many of those who have succumbed to the virus, he will have the best medical care available.

A variety of people around Mr. Trump were previously infected by the virus, including most recently Robert C. O’Brien, his national security adviser, who had a mild case before returning to work in August. Others infected include Kimberly Guilfoyle, his son’s girlfriend; a White House valet; Katie Miller, Vice President Mike Pence’s press secretary; as well as some Secret Service agents, campaign advance workers and a Marine in the president’s helicopter unit.

Herman Cain, a former Republican presidential candidate and political ally of Mr. Trump’s, died of the coronavirus in July after attending the president’s campaign rally in Tulsa, Okla., where Mr. Cain, like many in the arena, was seen not wearing a mask at least part of the time.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly expressed confidence in public about his own health, saying he was not concerned about being exposed despite his various close calls. “I’m on a stage that’s very far away, and, so, I’m not at all concerned,” he said last month, brushing off worries about crowded rallies.

Behind the scenes, though, the self-described germophobe was angry in the spring that his valet, who is among those who serve him food, had not been wearing a mask before testing positive, according to people in touch with him. Mr. Trump privately expressed irritation with people who got too close to him. According to the president, he began taking hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug, proactively around this time and later said it caused no adverse effects.

While the coronavirus is much deadlier than the flu, the vast majority of people infected by it recover, especially if there is no underlying condition, but the threat climbs with age. If Mr. Trump becomes symptomatic, it could take him weeks to recover.

Under the 25th Amendment, a medically incapacitated president has the option of temporarily transferring power to the vice president and can reclaim his authority whenever he deems himself fit for duty.

Since the amendment was ratified in 1967, presidents have done so only three times. In 1985, President Ronald Reagan had a colectomy and briefly turned over power to Vice President George Bush, although he did not explicitly cite the amendment in doing so. President George W. Bush did invoke the amendment twice in temporarily turning over power to Vice President Dick Cheney during colonoscopies in 2002 and 2007.

There is a long history of presidents falling seriously ill while in office, including some afflicted during epidemics. George Washington was feared close to death amid an influenza epidemic during his second year, while Woodrow Wilson became sick during Paris peace talks after World War I with what some specialists and historians believe was the influenza that ravaged the world from 1918 through 1920.

Four presidents have died in office of natural causes: William Henry Harrison, Zachary Taylor, Warren G. Harding and Franklin D. Roosevelt, while Wilson endured a debilitating stroke and Dwight D. Eisenhower had a heart attack in his first term and a stroke in his second. Four others were assassinated in office: Abraham Lincoln, James A. Garfield, William McKinley and John F. Kennedy.

But such health crises in the White House have been rarer in recent times. Since Reagan was shot in 1981, no president has been known to confront a life-threatening condition while in office.

Continue Reading

Health

Those may be great campaign promises. But parliamentary realities will get in the way of actually enacting such plans into law

Published

on

A brawl is brewing between liberal and moderate Democrats. One can find evidence of this fight in the battle to increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour as part of the latest coronavirus relief bill. The left failed in that effort. And despite having control of the House, Senate and White House, exclusion of the wage hike reflected the political realities of what progressives can do with a 50/50 Senate and a House with 221 Democrats and 211 Republicans.
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This doesn’t bode well for progressive initiatives like gun restrictions, climate change legislation and immigration reform. A failure to translate those campaign promises into legislative achievements could drive progressives up the wall by the end of this Congress.
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Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., meets with reporters before the House votes to pass a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package, during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Feb. 26, 2021.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., meets with reporters before the House votes to pass a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package, during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Feb. 26, 2021. (AP)

To wit: Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough serves as a procedural umpire. She ruled recently that the Democrats’ gambit to include a $15-an-hour minimum wage increase in the COVID relief bill violated special budget reconciliation rules.

Lawmakers can stuff almost anything they want in a garden variety piece of legislation. But not in a measure treated under the unique budget reconciliation process.

Democrats elected to use the special budgetary framework for the COVID measure to avoid a filibuster. Otherwise, they need 60 votes to rebuff a filibuster. With only 50 Democrats in the Senate and only a handful of “gettable” Republicans for this measure, attaining 60 votes was never going to happen. So, Democrats teed up the budget reconciliation option.

Deploying the once-a-fiscal-year reconciliation process terminates the filibuster for this bill – and this bill only.

But there was a tradeoff.

Those budget rules restrict provisions from the bill that address policy or contribute to the deficit over an extended period. MacDonough ruled that the minimum wage proposal didn’t qualify for reconciliation.

BIDEN’S $1.9T CORONAVIRUS RELIEF BILL IS ‘TROJAN HORSE,’ WILL USE AS ‘SLUSH FUND’ TO BUY VOTES: REP. NUNES

In many respects, this is not a surprise. Just days ago, President Biden doubted that the minimum wage increase would survive MacDonough’s vetting for this COVID bill.

Liberal Democrats went ballistic.

“I certainly do think that there should be either an override (of MacDonough’s ruling) or a replacement,” said Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn. “There are no more excuses.”

“I think the parliamentarian was wrong on this call,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.

When asked if they should sack MacDonough, Ocasio-Cortez replied “all options should be on the table.”

Progressive Caucus Co-chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., argued that Senate Democrats should go over the head of MacDonough.

“This is an advisory opinion. We made a promise to raise the minimum wage. We now have to deliver on that promise to 27 million Americans who are not going to be convinced when we go back in two years and say ‘Sorry, the unelected parliamentarian told us we couldn’t raise the minimum wage,’” said Jayapal. “So we’re going to have to make a choice here.”

Jayapal said Senate budget reconciliation rules “were put in there, really, to preserve the power of White segregationists and the power of the minority.”

Jayapal may be right about some of the reasons regarding “segregationists” and the Senate filibuster. But not when it comes to budget reconciliation.

The reason is that the Budget Act of 1974 governs the budget reconciliation process in the Senate. That’s 1974, not 1874.

Omar and Jayapal are right. There is a way to potentially contest MacDonough’s ruling.

MacDonough was enforcing the “Byrd Rule” when she nixed the minimum wage proposal. It’s named after late Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd, D-W.Va.

A senator could challenge MacDonough’s ruling – but the Senate would have to find itself in a very specific procedural posture – essentially a parliamentary cul-de-sac – where nothing else could be debated. Thus, senators could set up a vote to overturn MacDonough’s ruling by detonating the Byrd rule on a simple majority vote.

This would not constitute a Senate “rules change.” But a “precedent” change. The Senate conducts much of its business via “precedent” and not by the 44 Standing Rules of the Senate. Such a tactic would be akin to the “nuclear option” used in 2013 and 2017 to curb filibusters on executive branch and Supreme Court nominees.

Overriding the parliamentarian boils down to the math.

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is one Democrat who opposes including the minimum wage increase in the COVID bill. Incidentally, Manchin is now in the seat held for decades by Byrd. Manchin has indicated he would also oppose nuking the Byrd Rule.

‘SQUAD’ MEMBERS AOC, OMAR SUGGEST SENATE PARLIAMENTARIAN COULD BE REMOVED OVER MINIMUM WAGE DECISION

So if Democrats only have 50 votes to start with and Manchin opposes overriding the parliamentarian…

The other option is for a senator to move to “waive the Budget Act” as it pertains to the minimum wage provision. This option permits the Senate to ignore the Budget Act – and potentially include the minimum wage increase. But, the Senate can only waive the Budget Act if 60 (!) senators vote to do so.

That dog won’t hunt.

In other words, if you are struggling to get 51 votes, you’ll never wrangle 60.

Replacing the parliamentarian?

Yes. It’s happened before. In 2001, Senate Republicans relieved then Parliamentarian Bob Dove of his position after some rulings they didn’t like. But there is a tiny universe of persons on the planet qualified to perform the parliamentarian’s duties.

Democrats criticized former President Trump’s nomination of Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the high court last fall. They asserted the former president only tapped Barrett because she would make rulings favorable to the Trump administration. Do Democrats really want to install a parliamentarian who will only rule in their direction? Or, would they rather have someone objectively calling balls and strikes?

Democrats included the $15 minimum wage increase in their $1.9 trillion COVID bill passed early Saturday morning. But Democrats must decide whether or not to support the next round of the bill after the Senate strips the minimum wage provision from the measure.

Ocasio-Cortez said moderate Democrats should be “lucky that progressives aren’t asking for $24 (an hour) right now.”

But that’s the problem. Procedural gymnastics with MacDonough revealed just how little power progressives truly have in Washington. This was always going to be the tension inside the party with Democrats controlling the White House, House and Senate.

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Liberals hoped to raise the minimum wage. Approve climate change legislation. Impose gun control. Adopt immigration reform. Grant Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico statehood. Those may be great campaign promises. But parliamentary realities will get in the way of actually enacting such plans into law.

It’s about the math. It’s about the math. It’s about the math.

One wonders if Democrats overpromised to their base? Or, if liberals will grow disillusioned? It’s a danger for Democrats.

I asked House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., if she thought there would be problems passing the bill when it came back from the Senate.

“No,” replied the speaker.

That’s the verdict on the coronavirus bill. But bigger problems could lurk for the party if they don’t enact major initiatives they promised their left flank.

Continue Reading

Health

and potentially include the minimum wage increase. But, the Senate can only waive the Budget Act if 60 (!) senators vote to do so.

Published

on

A brawl is brewing between liberal and moderate Democrats. One can find evidence of this fight in the battle to increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour as part of the latest coronavirus relief bill. The left failed in that effort. And despite having control of the House, Senate and White House, exclusion of the wage hike reflected the political realities of what progressives can do with a 50/50 Senate and a House with 221 Democrats and 211 Republicans.
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This doesn’t bode well for progressive initiatives like gun restrictions, climate change legislation and immigration reform. A failure to translate those campaign promises into legislative achievements could drive progressives up the wall by the end of this Congress.
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Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., meets with reporters before the House votes to pass a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package, during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Feb. 26, 2021.
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., meets with reporters before the House votes to pass a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package, during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Feb. 26, 2021. (AP)

To wit: Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough serves as a procedural umpire. She ruled recently that the Democrats’ gambit to include a $15-an-hour minimum wage increase in the COVID relief bill violated special budget reconciliation rules.

Lawmakers can stuff almost anything they want in a garden variety piece of legislation. But not in a measure treated under the unique budget reconciliation process.

Democrats elected to use the special budgetary framework for the COVID measure to avoid a filibuster. Otherwise, they need 60 votes to rebuff a filibuster. With only 50 Democrats in the Senate and only a handful of “gettable” Republicans for this measure, attaining 60 votes was never going to happen. So, Democrats teed up the budget reconciliation option.

Deploying the once-a-fiscal-year reconciliation process terminates the filibuster for this bill – and this bill only.

But there was a tradeoff.

Those budget rules restrict provisions from the bill that address policy or contribute to the deficit over an extended period. MacDonough ruled that the minimum wage proposal didn’t qualify for reconciliation.

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In many respects, this is not a surprise. Just days ago, President Biden doubted that the minimum wage increase would survive MacDonough’s vetting for this COVID bill.

Liberal Democrats went ballistic.

“I certainly do think that there should be either an override (of MacDonough’s ruling) or a replacement,” said Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn. “There are no more excuses.”

“I think the parliamentarian was wrong on this call,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.

When asked if they should sack MacDonough, Ocasio-Cortez replied “all options should be on the table.”

Progressive Caucus Co-chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., argued that Senate Democrats should go over the head of MacDonough.

“This is an advisory opinion. We made a promise to raise the minimum wage. We now have to deliver on that promise to 27 million Americans who are not going to be convinced when we go back in two years and say ‘Sorry, the unelected parliamentarian told us we couldn’t raise the minimum wage,’” said Jayapal. “So we’re going to have to make a choice here.”

Jayapal said Senate budget reconciliation rules “were put in there, really, to preserve the power of White segregationists and the power of the minority.”

Jayapal may be right about some of the reasons regarding “segregationists” and the Senate filibuster. But not when it comes to budget reconciliation.

The reason is that the Budget Act of 1974 governs the budget reconciliation process in the Senate. That’s 1974, not 1874.

Omar and Jayapal are right. There is a way to potentially contest MacDonough’s ruling.

MacDonough was enforcing the “Byrd Rule” when she nixed the minimum wage proposal. It’s named after late Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd, D-W.Va.

A senator could challenge MacDonough’s ruling – but the Senate would have to find itself in a very specific procedural posture – essentially a parliamentary cul-de-sac – where nothing else could be debated. Thus, senators could set up a vote to overturn MacDonough’s ruling by detonating the Byrd rule on a simple majority vote.

This would not constitute a Senate “rules change.” But a “precedent” change. The Senate conducts much of its business via “precedent” and not by the 44 Standing Rules of the Senate. Such a tactic would be akin to the “nuclear option” used in 2013 and 2017 to curb filibusters on executive branch and Supreme Court nominees.

Overriding the parliamentarian boils down to the math.

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is one Democrat who opposes including the minimum wage increase in the COVID bill. Incidentally, Manchin is now in the seat held for decades by Byrd. Manchin has indicated he would also oppose nuking the Byrd Rule.

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So if Democrats only have 50 votes to start with and Manchin opposes overriding the parliamentarian…

The other option is for a senator to move to “waive the Budget Act” as it pertains to the minimum wage provision. This option permits the Senate to ignore the Budget Act – and potentially include the minimum wage increase. But, the Senate can only waive the Budget Act if 60 (!) senators vote to do so.

That dog won’t hunt.

In other words, if you are struggling to get 51 votes, you’ll never wrangle 60.

Replacing the parliamentarian?

Yes. It’s happened before. In 2001, Senate Republicans relieved then Parliamentarian Bob Dove of his position after some rulings they didn’t like. But there is a tiny universe of persons on the planet qualified to perform the parliamentarian’s duties.

Democrats criticized former President Trump’s nomination of Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the high court last fall. They asserted the former president only tapped Barrett because she would make rulings favorable to the Trump administration. Do Democrats really want to install a parliamentarian who will only rule in their direction? Or, would they rather have someone objectively calling balls and strikes?

Democrats included the $15 minimum wage increase in their $1.9 trillion COVID bill passed early Saturday morning. But Democrats must decide whether or not to support the next round of the bill after the Senate strips the minimum wage provision from the measure.

Ocasio-Cortez said moderate Democrats should be “lucky that progressives aren’t asking for $24 (an hour) right now.”

But that’s the problem. Procedural gymnastics with MacDonough revealed just how little power progressives truly have in Washington. This was always going to be the tension inside the party with Democrats controlling the White House, House and Senate.

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Liberals hoped to raise the minimum wage. Approve climate change legislation. Impose gun control. Adopt immigration reform. Grant Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico statehood. Those may be great campaign promises. But parliamentary realities will get in the way of actually enacting such plans into law.

It’s about the math. It’s about the math. It’s about the math.

One wonders if Democrats overpromised to their base? Or, if liberals will grow disillusioned? It’s a danger for Democrats.

I asked House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., if she thought there would be problems passing the bill when it came back from the Senate.

“No,” replied the speaker.

That’s the verdict on the coronavirus bill. But bigger problems could lurk for the party if they don’t enact major initiatives they promised their left flank.

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